上周(12月30日-1月3日)A股市场走出开门红,上证指数涨幅为%,报收点,深证成长上涨%,沪深300上涨%,中小板指上涨%,创业板指上涨%。

Last week (December 30-January 3) A-share market came out of the open, the Shanghai index rose%, reported closing point, Shenzhen growth rose%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 up%, small and medium-sized board index up%, gem up%.

行业板块方面,上周中信一级行业板块都有不同幅度上涨,涨幅居前的板块为农林牧渔、建筑材料、纺织服装、有色金属等,涨幅分别为%、%、%、%。

On the sector side, last week's Citic-level sector all had a different range of gains, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, building materials, textile and clothing, non-ferrous metals and so on, rising by%,%,% and%.

综合各机构观点,各机构均认为此次央行降准符合市场预期,并且看好春季行情。展望2020年,以5G发展为驱动的科技板块以及券商、地产等低估值板块受到机构青睐。

Synthesizing each agency's viewpoint, each agency thinks this central bank reduces in line with market expectation, and optimistic spring market. Looking ahead to 2020, the 5G development driven by the technology sector and brokerage, real estate and other undervalued sectors are favored by institutions.

汇丰晋信认为,降准不应该看作货币政策宽松的信号。目前货币供应或依靠基础货币投放(央行扩表),或提高货币乘数(降准),这两年主要是靠降准来保证合理的货币供应(M2约8%);预期2020年还可能降准3次(约150个基点)。

此次降准我们认为主要还是为了保证流动性和降成本,主要降低银行成本;而相较之下“降息”(指“MLF-LPR”机制)效果会更明显,对于资产价格的信号意义更强。我们倾向于认为至少二季度之后才可能看到“降息”,因为短期经济下行压力减缓,MLF密集到期在下半年,同时与海外宽松步调保持相对一致。

We believe that this reduction is mainly aimed at ensuring liquidity and lowering costs, mainly lowering bank costs; and that the effect of the \"MLF-LPR \"( the \"MLF-LPR \"mechanism) would be more pronounced and more signalling for asset prices. We tend to see a \"rate cut \"at least after the second quarter, as short-term downward pressure slows, with MLF-intensive maturities in the second half of the year, while keeping pace with overseas easing.

广发基金认为,此次准备金率的下调在预期之内,可看作是市场乐观预期的确认。同时,DR007也显示当前流动性相当充裕。

Guangfa believes that the reserve ratio cut in the forecast, can be seen as a confirmation of market optimism. At the same time, DR007 also shows that the current liquidity is quite abundant.

风险偏好方面,美伊之间的地缘政治问题发酵可能对短期风险偏好有所影响,但我们认为美伊问题不太可能发酵成全面冲突,当前的宏观大背景还是全球经济复苏和风险偏好回升,因此我们认为春季行情还会继续。

In terms of risk appetite, the geopolitical issue between the u.s. and iran may have an impact on short-term risk appetite, but we don't think the u.s. and iran issue is likely to emerge as a full-blown conflict, the current macro context or the global economic recovery and risk appetite recovery, so we think the spring market will continue.

行业配置方面,建议沿低估值修复和高景气成长两条主线布局。其中,低估值修复可以关注券商、地产、建材等行业,高成长则重点关注通信代际升级带来的产业链景气度提升以及新能源汽车产业链。同时,进入1月后年报预告将成为科技成长行情的催化剂,推荐行业包括电子和传媒等。

Industry configuration, proposed along the low valuation repair and high landscape growth two main line layout. Among them, the restoration of underestimated value can focus on brokerage, real estate, building materials and other industries, high growth is focused on communications intergenerational upgrading of the industrial chain landscape and new energy auto industry chain. At the same time, after entering January, the annual forecast will be a catalyst for the growth of technology, recommending industries including electronics and media.

云游戏的后台计算能力由云计算提供,其架构已经成熟。对云游戏体验效果影响最重要的因素在于时延。与本地游戏相比,云游戏额外增加了云端抓屏编码时延、网络传输时延、终端解码时延等流化处理时延。其中,云端画面抓取、视频编码时延主要受游戏厂商的云计算平台影响,终端解码时延受用户终端影响,网络传输时延受通信网络的影响。

The background computing power of cloud games is provided by cloud computing, and its architecture is ripe. The most important factor affecting the effect of cloud game experience is delay. Compared with the local game, cloud game increases the coding delay, network transmission delay, terminal decoding delay and other fluidized processing delays. Among them, the cloud image capture, video coding delay is mainly affected by the cloud computing platform of game manufacturers, the terminal decoding delay is affected by the user terminal, and the network transmission delay is affected by the communication network.

5G时代到来将极大推动云游戏行业的发展。用户更换5G手机后,手机解码处理能力更强,终端解码时延降低。目前的4G空口时延为10ms,而5G技术标准中的空口时延降至1ms,5G的低时延特性有助于降低网络传输时延,将会减少游戏的卡顿,大幅提升用户的游戏体验。与此同时,云游戏的码率比高清视频高,对流量的消耗比流媒体更多,有望成为运营商5G业务的重要应用场景。

The arrival of the 5G era will greatly promote the development of the cloud game industry. After the user changes the 5G mobile phone, the mobile phone decoding processing ability is stronger, and the terminal decoding delay is reduced. The current 4G empty port delay is 10ms, and the empty port delay in the 5G technical standard is reduced to 1ms, and the low delay characteristic of 5G helps to reduce the network transmission delay, which will reduce the Catton of the game and greatly improve the user's game experience. At the same time, cloud games have higher code rate than HD video, and consume more traffic than streaming media, which is expected to become an important application scene for 5G business of operators.

我们觉得真正在左右未来投资的重心,它不再是简单的成长或者价值之间的评判,未来两者都有机会。更重要的维度应该是结合着行业景气的起伏,随着一些细分的领域里面竞争环境、竞争格局的变迁,以及相关上市公司基本面的变化,无论在成长还是价值领域,还会持续不断涌现出更多的一些非常好的投资机会。

We feel that the real focus of investment in the future is no longer a simple growth or value judgment, and that there are opportunities for both. The more important dimension should be to combine the ups and downs of the industry, and with the change of competition environment, competition pattern, and the change of the fundamentals of related listed companies in some subdivisions, there will continue to be more very good investment opportunities in both growth and value areas.

2020年的上半场,聚焦“双逆”,即逆经济周期,逆贸易战的行业和板块。我们认为,2020年的第一个相对确定性的机会来自科技板块行情的延续,其中重点关注“双逆”领域,即逆经济周期、逆贸易战的行业和板块。以往逆经济周期的行业主要是“铁公基”,现在逆经济周期的主要是“新基建”,这也是政府大力倡导和支持的领域。

In the first half of 2020, focus on the \"double inverse \", that is, the reverse economic cycle, the industry and the plate of the reverse trade war. We believe that the first relative certainty of 2020 comes from the continuation of the technology sector, which focuses on the \"double inverse\" area, that is, the reverse economic cycle, the industry and the plate of the reverse trade. The industry that used to be the reverse economic cycle was mainly \"iron-based \", and now the reverse economic cycle is mainly\" new infrastructure \", which is also the area that the government strongly advocates and supports.

未来确定性机会较强的细分领域,一个是5G技术相关产业链机会,从半导体芯片,半导体设备,通讯设备,5G应用等等。其核心是5G之下的物联网。

In the future, the subdivision with strong deterministic opportunities, one is 5G technology-related industry chain opportunities, from semiconductor chips, semiconductor equipment, communication equipment, 5G applications, etc. Its core is the Internet of Things below 5G.

另一个细分领域则是信创工程,基于中美科技领域竞争关系下催生的行业确定性机会。始于美国对于华为公司和中国一些高科技公司的限制和制裁,中美之间的科技战已经实质性展开了。未来中国政府和企业的一些自卫行为应该可以预期的。从CPU、操作系统、服务器、中间件,再到数据库、办公软件,中国政府和企业可能会有一个信息创新工程,从而给国内计算机软、硬件以及系统集成的企业带来翻天覆地的变化。

滞涨的周期性板块或迎来系统性的估值修复机会。周期股,或者是大盘蓝筹偏周期的一些传统性的行业,目前整体处于估值水平底部的状态,比如年中大家热议的周期股破净。从历史经验来看,周期股赚的是什么钱?大部分是来自对宏观经济或行业过度悲观导致的股票定价错误(偏低),而后伴随基本面改善迎来戴维斯双击的机会。

The stagflation of the cyclical sector or ushered in a systematic valuation repair opportunities. Cyclical stocks, or some of the traditional sectors of the broad blue chip cycle, are currently at the bottom of the valuation level as a whole, such as the hotly debated cycle of the year. From the historical experience, what money does the cycle stock earn? Much of it comes from mispricing (low) stocks due to excessive pessimism about the macro economy or industry, followed by a chance for Davis to double-click.

2019年在宏观经济大背景持续向下的过程中,尽管其中不乏一些盈利向好的龙头企业,但市场对于周期大类品种的估值较低,2019的市场风口并不在此。因此,当前周期股的低估值其实包含了相对充分的悲观预期,我们认为随着譬如年初降准等一系列流动性宽松的信号提前出现,后续伴随着宏观经济的企稳迹象的出现,传统周期板块表现的拐点也随时可能会出来,率先体现在对悲观预期下低估值的修复。这是值得我们在2020年全年,去阶段性重点把握的地方。

In 2019, in the process of continuing downwards in the macro-economic context, although there are some of the leading profitable companies, the market has a lower valuation of the cyclical broad categories of varieties, and the 2019 market outlet is not here. Thus, the low valuation of current cyclical stocks actually contains relatively full pessimism, and we believe that with a series of early signs of liquidity easing, such as lowering at the beginning of the year, followed by signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, the inflection point of the traditional cyclical sector's performance is likely to emerge at any time, taking the lead in repairing low valuations under gloomy expectations. This is worthy of our 2020 full year, go to the stage to focus on the place.

其他比如像医药、食品饮料等传统的消费品领域。整体板块来看,最近两三年估值水平有了一个系统性的上升,目前不少公司的估值水平已经达到了一个相对合理的位置。

Other areas such as traditional consumer goods such as medicine, food and beverage. Overall, the valuation level has risen systematically in the last two or three years, and many companies have reached a relatively reasonable position.

下一阶段我们判断,传统消费品类的投资机会可能会以相对更细分的赛道、主题性甚至或是个股性的机会出现,比如消费下沉、地产后周期中所包含的一些机会。

In the next phase, we judge that investment opportunities in traditional consumer categories may emerge with relatively more segmented circuit, thematic or even individual stock opportunities, such as consumer sinks, some opportunities contained in the post-real estate cycle.


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